In-depth report on automobiles and auto parts: a new era in the automotive industry


Release time:

2022-08-30

The social cost of automobiles: the inability to allocate reasonably and effectively leads to the poor living environment of the automobile industry. We believe that in addition to the manufacturing cost of each automobile, it also needs to bring considerable social costs during its driving. At present, the most important reason for the low overall valuation of the automobile industry in the-share market is that the rapid growth of automobile sales has brought tremendous pressure on the social carrying capacity, and the corresponding social costs cannot be reasonably and effectively allocated to related parties. The situation of paying the bill has led to the lack of friendliness to the automobile industry from many levels of society.
 
Three major problems: social carrying capacity limits suppress passenger car sector valuation.
 
We believe that there are three main problems facing the domestic automobile industry: 1) energy problems, which can be alleviated by improving the fuel economy of automobiles in the short term, and the development of new energy vehicles in the long term; 2) environmental problems are essentially a cost problem rather than a technical problem; 3) traffic problems, which we think is a management problem, and the development of the Internet of vehicles will also help solve this problem.
 
One solution to the problem: electrification of power systems is the trend
 
We believe that the speed of the promotion of new energy vehicles actually depends on the speed of the following two technological advances: 1) the development of battery technology represented by lithium batteries; 2) the exploration and exploitation of fossil energy represented by oil and shale gas. The continued development of technology and various internal combustion engine technologies. Judging from the new car plans of major multinational car companies, the electrification of power systems is the general trend. The current disagreement only lies in how to choose appropriate market segments and technical routes to promote electrified power systems under the existing battery technology and infrastructure conditions. In addition, with the significant improvement of domestic passenger car fuel consumption limit indicators, the upgrading of existing internal combustion engine technology will also bring many investment opportunities.
 
The second solution to the problem: intelligent cars, IT giants do software, auto giants do hardware
 
The average price of mobile phones is only a few thousand yuan, and the promotion of smart phones has formed a huge industrial chain.
 
The average price of bicycles in the domestic market is about 100000 yuan. Therefore, with technological breakthroughs, intelligent cars can find various applications, which can meet the various information needs of car drivers and passengers while generating new business opportunities and business models. From the perspective of foreign development experience, IT giants are going deep into the automotive intelligent market through software, while auto giants are actively developing in-vehicle wireless communication systems.
 
The "side effects" of new technologies: the relationship between people and cars is quietly changing
 
We believe that with the efforts of the automobile industry to solve the social carrying capacity and the penetration of information technology into the automobile industry, the relationship between people and cars will enter a new era of accelerated change in the next 3 to 5 years, which is mainly reflected in the three aspects of driving mode, interaction mode and ownership mode.
 
Investment advice: Companies that can solve these three problems will get a valuation boost.
 
Tesla's surge in the U.S. stock market shows that once the auto industry can prove that it is possible to find a solution to these three problems, the valuation of listed companies that master the relevant technology will be greatly improved. We think BYD, GAC Group, Joyson Electronics, China Automotive Research, and YinLon will benefit significantly from this process.